20 people in Devon confirmed positive for Coronavirus - Council chief issues warning

The coronavirus outbreak could have the biggest impact on people's day-to-day lives since the Second World War, Devon County Council's chief executive has said.

Speaking at Thursday's Health and Adult Care Scrutiny Committee, Dr Phil Norrey outlined the way in which Devon is tackling and responding to the Covid-19 outbreak.

He said that at the height of the outbreak, they are planning for up to 30 per cent of the workforce to either be off due to the virus, self-isolation, or having caring responsibilities and that they are preparing to make rapid decisions about protecting the most vulnerable.

The latest figures shows that there are still 20 people in Devon who have tested positive for coronavirus – 13 in the Devon County Council area and seven in Torbay, and none in Plymouth – and that all of the cases are explained by people returning from holiday destinations that have been hotspots for the virus and none so far are as a result of community transmission.

None of the deaths, 10 nationally, are in Devon, although Dr Norrey said there was a post-mortem being carried out into one death in the county where the possibility that they had contracted the virus was being investigated.

He added that there was nothing to suggest that Devon was a particular hotspot for the coronavirus.

Latest figures say there has been 590 positive tests for coronavirus around the UK and two more people have died, taking the total to 10.

The Department of Health says 29,174 tests have been carried out and the confirmed cases is up by 134 from yesterday's number.

Speaking at the meeting, Dr Norrey said: "None of us can be in any doubt about the potential impact on day-to-day life and it could be the biggest impact on anything since the Second World War. It will have a biting impact on everyone across all communities.

"The impact of the virus will fall disproportionally on the more vulnerable in our communities. The mortality rate on the older population, in China for the over 80s, a 14 per cent death rate. It is unlikely to be that in this country, but you can see the potential impact of the virus and the vulnerability of those affected both by the virus and those who rely on day to day care services which are affected by the virus.

"As we move into the delay phase, we are expectations additional restrictions. Expecting in days, even hours, into terms of workforce, with those having mild symptoms required to stay away from work.

"At the height, we are looking at 20 per cent either ill or self-isolating, with a 10 per cent knock-on as well because people have caring responsibilities. Up to 30 per cent of the workforce could be away at the peak, and organisationally, us and the NHS are planning for this sort of impact, and some smaller institutions planning for 50/60 per cent."

He added: "There is lots of planning going on and organisationally we will have to make rapid decisions about resources and tasks that don't need to be done to free up staff to protect the most vulnerable."

In the early stages of the outbreak, Devon was one of the first places in the UK where there were confirmed cases, but Dr Norrey said: "Those cases were largely explicable in terms of people returning from holiday destinations. We have not seen any confirmed cases from community transmission and been overtaken by other areas in terms of the outbreak. In Devon, confirmed cases is still 13 and we don't have any deaths in Devon. There is nothing to suggest that Devon is a particular hotspot for it."

Tracey Polak, Assistant Director of Public Health at Devon County Council, added: "While we had early cases, there have been no unexplained transmission and no rise in cases over the last few days, although we expect them."/

Councillor Paul Crabb asked for clarification as to why Dr Norrey thought it would be the biggest impact since the Second World Ward and what the difference was in terms of this compared to SARS or MURS?

Dr Norrey said it was a high impact disease and has the combination of communicability and impact. He said that around 34 per cent of people who got MURS died, but it was not communicable

He said the coronavirus was a form of pneumonia and attacks the cells in the lungs and the combination of it being very contagious, having a higher impact than the flu, and it is a novel virus so there is no built up immunity.

Dr Norrey said: "We will develop vaccines over time but there is not one at the moment, and it attacks the vulnerable, so have to organise in a different way to protect the vulnerable."

He added that the expectation for the peak initially was thought to be in May/June, but that is now being brought back to April/May, and that the suspicion as to why Italy has more cases than other places is that it was prevalent for a while but not picked up.

Councillor Claire Wright raised concerns about the lack of action being taken by Government and whether they were playing 'Russian Roulette' with people's health, while Councillor Martin Shaw said that we needed to be ahead of the curve, that it could be a threat to the whole population, and the messaging need to be more radical

But Councillor Andrew Saywell said that it was important to follow the science and health advice from the medical experts and not want 'random person on Twitter' have to say.

He said that anyone not following the advice was either suggesting the Chief Medical Officer was incompetent of that the Government was ignoring the medical advice, and that until it changes, we should follow the advice and follow the science.

Dr Norrey said that he understood the concerns about interventions and the timings of them and that other countries were taking a different approach, such as Ireland shutting all schools until March 29.

He said: "The Government has taken a science based approach on the right interventions at the right time. We don't know if it will work but a rational and defensible position to take. We have to balance the other impacts and that vulnerable exposed to the disease may also be impacted but the non-provision of public services that may follow."

Simon Tapley, Interim accountable officer for the NEW Devon CCG, added that it was likely the NHS have to consider cancelling some elective and non-urgent surgeries, as they sometimes have to do during Winter pressures on the service.

The committee unanimously agreed to call on Central Government to provide adequate resources to councils to help tackle any adult social care problems that happen relating to the covid-19 epidemic.

More information and the latest advice on Coronavirus (COVID-19) can be found here.